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No messing around this time. I picked this race’s horse

based on probability and solid data. June’s rent money

isn’t in real jeopardy. July’s. Okay, I deserved a portion

of previous criticism, for backing “feelings,” tossing thousands

I didn’t have to spare at horses chosen by hunches.

But this time’s different. For one—I’m not drinking,

today. And B—this horse, which I looked at up close,

over in the paddock barn, it simply can’t miss.

It’s undervalued, thirty to one. Everybody will forgive me

in five minutes once this race runs. They’ll see

that money pooch my pockets out. The jockey

is riding a five-race win streak. So there’s science

driving this betting decision. If I don’t back him

surely someone else will. They’ll go home as a hero

flush with cash and thought of as a smart cookie

or plain lucky. Why not me? This pick is fool-proof.

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Todd Mercer’s short collection, Ingenue, was a winner of the Celery City contest. His digital chapbook, Life-wish Maintenance is available free at Right Hand Pointing. Mercer has been nominated for Pushcarts and Best of the Net awards in Fiction and Poetry. Recent work appears in Beatnik Cowboy, Fictive Dream, and The Lake.